Snapshot - 17 November 2025
European gas firmed into the weekend as forecasts turned colder for late November, while UK power was broadly steady as softer carbon offset fuel strength. Norwegian nominations stayed high and LNG arrivals into North West Europe remained busy, with several cargoes due at UK terminals. Storage has moved into withdrawals and sits around the low-80s per cent, roughly ten points below last year, increasing sensitivity to any prolonged cold spell but leaving near term fundamentals still comfortable.
Prompt and near-curve gas gained as models pointed to lower temperatures in Germany and North West Europe this week. UK system balance stayed manageable, with Langeled flows near recent highs, stable LNG send-out and interconnectors flipping as needed when continental wind picked up. NBP front month traded around 80 p/th and TTF near €31/MWh. Curve moves were measured, with weather and Norwegian reliability the main short-term swing factors.
UK power was little changed on the day. Day-ahead baseload held in the £70s to low-£80s/MWh band as a mixed wind profile and softer carbon balanced firmer gas. Forward baseload followed fuel only partially: front month and Q1 retained a small premium for colder risk, while clean sparks narrowed as UKAs drifted lower and gas outperformed power. Wind is expected to oscillate around seasonal norms, so any colder spell that coincides with low output would steepen the prompt but rallies should fade if forecasts are met.
Crude remained near the lower end of its recent range, with elevated freight and muted time-spreads still signalling comfortable supply. Coal for 2026 stayed a little above $100/t and provided limited direction. Carbon eased from early-week highs, trimming marginal generation costs even as policy support for higher prices persists. Other developments included NESO’s new regional planning consultation, Ofgem’s drive to simplify processes, higher UK gas exports on strong LNG and Norwegian receipts, an SSE equity raise for networks and low-carbon build, continued focus on data-centre-driven firm capacity, winter constraints at Arctic LNG 2, questions over 2026 OPEC+ cuts, and Denmark’s decision to raise its climate ambition.
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