Snapshot - 14 November 2025
Gas and power eased on Thursday as comfortable supply met a still-mild weekend outlook ahead of a brief colder spell next week. EU storage sits near 83 per cent, LNG line-ups across North West Europe remain busy and Norwegian pipeline supply is steady, keeping near-term risks contained despite the approaching temperature dip.
Front-month gas drifted lower, with NBP Dec-25 around 80 p/th and TTF Dec-25 near €30.6/MWh. Curves were softer week on week as fundamentals stayed benign and injections slowed. Forecasts show temperatures above seasonal norms through the weekend, then 3 to 4°C below normal in the UK from Tuesday, tightening the day-ahead balance. Physical supply stayed comfortable: Norwegian nominations held near recent levels, multiple cargoes were signalling for Milford Haven and shipping activity included one diverted Qatari vessel and another idling offshore, highlighting prompt softness. Interconnectors turned UK-net-export at times on strong system length.
Power followed gas lower along the curve. UK baseload front month priced near £81/MWh, while German equivalents around €98/MWh preserved import incentives. Wind supplied a little more than 40 per cent of GB generation, helping to cap prompt despite firmer heating demand ahead. Wind is expected to dip toward seasonal norms with the cooler spell before recovering, pointing to a firmer day-ahead early next week and more balanced conditions thereafter. Carbon remains supportive at the margin with EUAs near €81/t and UKAs in the mid-£60s/t.
Brent eased to about $63/bbl and WTI to $59/bbl as supply-build concerns outweighed geopolitics. ARA coal Cal-26 hovered near $101/t and currencies were stable. EUA Dec-25 closed near €81/t and UKA Dec-25 around £66/t. Other developments included the end of the US government shutdown, a busy North West European LNG line-up, shipping adjustments at Milford Haven, steady EU storage momentum near 83 per cent, wind’s 40 per cent share shaping GB prompt volatility and market focus on possible US tariff announcements.
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