Snapshot - 13 November 2025
Gas and power were mixed on Wednesday as UK gas eased along the curve while power held value on firmer carbon. Near-term fundamentals remain comfortable: LNG send-out is high, Norwegian exports are back near capacity and EU storage sits in the low-80s per cent, keeping early-winter risks contained unless temperatures break sharply colder.
NBP front month traded around 80 p/th and finished slightly lower despite a brief regas trip at South Hook, which tightened the prompt for a few hours before flows normalised. Forward gas across NBP, TTF and THE edged down, reflecting healthy supply and muted Asian pull as Europe retains destination appeal for US cargoes. Into late November, cooler forecasts for Britain and Germany point to higher LDZ demand and a somewhat firmer prompt even if the curve stays range-bound.
UK baseload initially tracked gas then decoupled as carbon strength lent support. Front-month baseload priced a little above £81/MWh, with German and Dutch contracts still higher, preserving positive import economics where interconnectors are available. Wind remains choppy, lifting into the weekend before easing back toward norms next week alongside cooler temperatures, implying modestly higher gas-for-power but limited upside given comfortable fuel and French nuclear availability.
Brent traded around $63–64/bbl after slipping on surplus concerns and higher US stocks. Coal forwards were marginally lower across Cal-26 to Cal-28. Carbon stayed firm relative to late October, with EUAs in the low-€80s/t and UKAs in the mid-£60s/t, keeping the EUA–UKA spread wide and supporting UK power relative to gas.
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