Snapshot - 12 November 2025
European gas and power were steady to slightly lower on Wednesday as warm mid-November weather and firmer wind forecasts kept fundamentals comfortable. NBP front-month held near 80 p/th and TTF around €31/MWh, with physical supply stable from Norway and LNG. The UK system opened long, supported by high Langeled flows and several US-sourced cargoes scheduled for the week. Storage across Europe remained near the mid-80s per cent range, limiting near-term risk despite ongoing attacks on Ukrainian energy assets.
Prompt gas eased early before stabilising into the close. The UK balance stayed loose with domestic output, strong pipeline imports and solid send-out. Four LNG vessels are due at UK terminals over the coming days, reinforcing flexibility with temperatures close to seasonal norms. Asian demand remains subdued, allowing Europe to retain destination pull for US LNG. Core risks remain geopolitical or policy-driven rather than physical, with markets alert to any shift in Russian energy trade flows.
UK power mirrored gas. Day-ahead baseload traded in the mid-£70s to low-£80s/MWh range, finding modest afternoon support after earlier weakness. Wind is expected to track around seasonal norms, implying periodic uplift in gas-for-power during lulls. Curve power dipped slightly, with EUA and UKA benchmarks broadly steady and interconnector flows and nuclear availability unremarkable.
Oil stayed range-bound. Brent traded around $64/bbl as traders weighed OPEC+ supply discipline against softer macro signals. Coal ARA Cal-26 held near $103/t, while EUAs hovered close to €80/t and UKAs around £64/t, keeping the EUA–UKA spread wide. Other developments include fresh pressure on Russian energy trade, further Indian pullback from December Russian crude, additional US LNG heading to Europe and continued Ukrainian infrastructure strikes maintaining a modest regional risk premium.
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