Snapshot - 11 November 2025
European gas benchmarks drifted to six-week lows as the latest EC46 model trimmed mid-December heating expectations by about 0.5 °C. Front contracts steadied late in the session, supported by consistent Norwegian flows and active LNG arrivals. NBP front-month settled near 80 p/th and TTF at €31/MWh. The UK system ran long with multiple US cargoes scheduled. Risk sentiment remained shaped by sporadic strikes on Ukrainian energy assets and sanction headlines but physical balances stayed comfortable.
Prompt gas softened early before recovering slightly into the close. The warmer forecast, strong Norwegian nominations and a long UK balance drove the initial weakness. Langeled ran near full capacity around 70 mcm, and send-out was steady with four LNG vessels due in the week ahead. Storage just below 83 per cent keeps flexibility high. Headline risks persist from Ukraine and tightening sanctions, yet Asian demand remains muted, leaving Europe the main draw for US LNG.
UK power tracked gas lower before finding mild support late in the session. Day-ahead baseload hovered in the mid-£70s to low-£80s/MWh range, and forward strips edged slightly lower week on week. Wind forecasts sit close to seasonal norms, limiting sharp demand swings, while modest carbon firmness provided minor curve support.
Brent held around $64/bbl as traders balanced OPEC+ discipline with weak macro indicators. Freight rates and time-spreads remain calm. Carbon and coal were stable, with EUAs near €80/t, UKAs £64/t and API2 Cal-26 at $103/t. Wider developments included renewed US pressure on NATO energy sourcing, India’s reduced Russian crude intake, ongoing Ukrainian infrastructure attacks, and a steady UK gas balance sustained by strong LNG cadence.
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