Snapshot - 10 November 2025
Prices eased into Friday’s close as milder weather and stronger wind forecasts softened prompt and near-curve gas and power. Week-ahead UK baseload fell by about £5/MWh, with continental benchmarks also drifting. Supply comfort held in place, supported by steady Norwegian exports around the low-300 mcm/day mark, busy Atlantic LNG schedules and EU storage near the mid-80s per cent. Near-term risks look balanced, with weather the main swing factor and scope for short cold snaps later in winter.
NBP and TTF nudged lower on improved temperature and wind expectations. Spot demand eased, linepack was comfortable and European LNG retained a delivered premium to Asia once freight is included, keeping transatlantic flows pointed to EU hubs. US feedgas hit fresh highs, while Norwegian nominations were broadly stable as maintenance effects faded. Curve moves were modest, with front-month tracking softer fundamentals and winter tenors holding a small geopolitical and weather premium; storage adds slowed as the system transitions to early-season withdrawals.
UK power tracked gas lower but showed sharper prompt moves as wind forecasts rebounded. Day-ahead baseload slumped intraday before steadying into the close, short-dated peak fell the most as Dunkelflaute fears eased, and interconnector flows were broadly normal. Further out, near contracts lagged gas on the way down while far-curve power underperformed as carbon softened late in the week. Temperatures are set modestly above average into late November, keeping thermal burn contained barring nuclear or French outage surprises.
Brent firmed for a second session, hovering around the mid-$60s/bbl on steadier OPEC+ guidance, though elevated VLCC freight and soft time-spreads continue to flag ample supply. Carbon eased into the weekend after mid-week strength around the EU’s 2040 debate, with the EUA-UKA spread broadly stable; API2 Cal-26 held a little above $100/t. Other developments included Ofgem appointing British Gas to take Tomato Energy customers, a 20-year Venture Global–Naturgy LNG deal from 2030, EU lawmakers backing a 90 per cent 2040 target, renewed polar-vortex chatter, Singapore’s green jet-fuel levy from 2026, and fresh Ofgem signals on retail resilience, debt write-offs and grid connection appeals.
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