Snapshot - 07 November 2025
Prices softened into Thursday’s close as higher wind forecasts and upward temperature revisions eased short-term demand risk. Prompt UK baseload settled near the low-£80s/MWh and NBP day-ahead around the mid-70s p/th. Continental balances were steady, European storage held just under 83 per cent, Norwegian exports recovered to roughly 330 mcm/day, and busy LNG schedules kept the system comfortably supplied.
Prompt and near-curve gas eased on a looser UK balance and stronger Norwegian flows. Domestic demand stayed moderate with above-normal temperatures and limited gas-for-power. UK LNG send-out stepped down from the prior session, yet several cargoes are due across South Hook, Dragon and Isle of Grain, with interconnectors flipping to export at times as the Continent also sat long. Further out, winter contracts were broadly stable; firmer Asian spot and a small Henry Hub rise did not materially shift European hub pricing.
UK day-ahead baseload fell to the low-£80s/MWh as wind outlooks improved into the weekend, with peak prices easing more than day-base. Interconnector imports helped cushion renewable lulls and nuclear availability tracked plan. Curve power was little changed to marginally firmer on the front months, with a narrowing near-term spark profile unless later-November turns cooler. System prices still showed brief tight spells without sustained stress.
Brent traded around $63–64/bbl after a choppy week, freight indicators stayed elevated, and carbon eased from early-week highs with EUAs near €80/t and UKAs in the mid-£50s/t. Coal API2 Cal-26 held a little above $100/t. Other developments included rising UK bill pressures despite cheaper wholesale, sanctions-driven complexity in Russian oil to India, Ukraine securing extra US LNG via Poland, and fresh delay risk at Hinkley Point C.
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