Snapshot - 06 November 2025
European gas and carbon weakened on Wednesday as policy headlines outweighed weather risks. EUAs fell after overnight talks on the 2040 climate law suggested delaying ETS2 for buildings and transport to 2028, denting sentiment. UKAs tracked lower, keeping the trans-Channel spread stable and removing support from forward power. Fundamentals stayed comfortable with storage in the low-80s per cent range, steady Norwegian flows and robust LNG scheduling, while milder forecasts and stronger wind trimmed near-term risk premia.
Prompt gas softened as demand indicators eased and the UK system lengthened. Norwegian exports continued to normalise after maintenance, with nominations rebuilding and Langeled receipts steady. LNG send-out across North-West Europe remained healthy amid regular Atlantic cargoes and weak Asian pull. Curve activity was muted, with winter tenors edging down but staying within recent ranges as traders balanced mild weather with residual policy and geopolitical risks.
UK power followed fuel and carbon lower but with smaller losses. Cheaper carbon cut marginal generation costs while improving wind forecasts reduced prompt tightness. Interconnectors continued to smooth intraday volatility and French nuclear availability supported imports. Forward baseload eased with NBP, though clean-spark spreads were little changed as carbon’s fall offset part of the gas move.
Crude held near the low-$60s/bbl after Saudi Arabia cut December OSPs for Asia and US inventories rose sharply, signalling soft demand. Coal was steady just above $100/t, offering little influence on European power. Carbon’s retreat remained the key cross-market driver, with EUAs and UKAs both lower. The day’s broader focus included fresh strikes on Russian refining, a cautious OPEC+ tone, and signs of tightening UK grid margins linked to rising data-centre demand.
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