Snapshot - 05 November 2025
European gas and power firmed through Tuesday as weaker wind and a cooler mid-November outlook tightened prompt balances. Temperatures remain above the five-year average but are expected to normalise, lifting heating demand and gas-for-power use. Norwegian flows stayed strong near 330 mcm/day with no new outages, and active LNG scheduling across North-West Europe continues to anchor supply as injections slow into withdrawal season.
Prompt gas rose as underperforming wind lifted demand, with UK NBP day-ahead closing in the high-70s p/th and TTF front-month in the low-€30s/MWh. Curve moves were contained by solid storage near 83 per cent and steady LNG send-out, including six US-origin cargoes due across UK and continental terminals. US feedgas remains close to record highs, keeping Atlantic supply well covered.
UK power tracked gas higher, led by stronger day-ahead prices as low wind extended into the evening peak. Forward contracts gained modestly, supported by firmer gas and carbon. Short Torness maintenance trimmed nuclear output, while clean sparks improved slightly with EUAs in the low-€80s/t and UKAs steady. Wind is forecast to dip further late week before a partial recovery next week.
Oil stayed range-bound in the mid-$60s/bbl as OPEC+ maintained a cautious approach amid oversupply concerns. Coal edged above $104/t on the Cal-26 strip, while carbon strengthened, lending mild support to power curves. LNG arrivals remain heavy, Norwegian flows steady, and storage just above 83 per cent signals a well-supplied start to withdrawal season.
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