Snapshot - 04 November 2025
European gas and power opened the week firmer as lower renewable output tightened the prompt and lifted gas-for-power demand. Prices rose steadily through Monday, supported by forecasts showing UK wind dropping to very low levels next week and weaker alpine hydro. Fundamentals remain stable with EU storage in the low-80s per cent range, healthy LNG flows, and Norwegian supply improving as maintenance winds down.
NBP and TTF moved higher on weaker wind and slightly stronger gas burn, with front-month NBP edging up and TTF near the low-€30s/MWh. System balances stayed comfortable: UKCS output and LNG send-out were steady, and Norwegian flows increased as Sleipner and other assets returned. US feedgas held close to record highs, underpinning a busy Atlantic LNG schedule. Storage near 83 per cent and mild temperatures into mid-month continue to cap risk premia.
UK power tracked gas gains, led by a sharp rally in week-ahead baseload as wind forecasts showed troughs near 600 MW early next week. November and early-winter contracts firmed in line with gas, while interconnector imports eased slightly as continental renewables also dipped. Power’s advance lagged gas further along the curve, with carbon strength offset by mild weather expectations.
Brent eased to the mid-$60s/bbl as oversupply concerns persisted despite OPEC+ restraint. Coal stayed near $100/t and carbon strengthened, with EUAs in the low-€80s/t and UKAs in the mid-£60s/t. The UN warned of widening climate gaps ahead of COP30, BP reported stronger Q3 earnings, Russian crude shipments fell under new sanctions, and US officials urged higher UK North Sea output to balance energy security and decarbonisation goals.
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