Snapshot - 03 November 2025
European gas and power eased on Monday as warm early-November weather reduced demand and LNG availability stayed strong. EU storage remains in the low-80s per cent range, cushioning the system against short-lived shocks. Renewables continue to steer prompt volatility, with ex-Hurricane Melissa lifting GB wind to around 16–17 GW before easing mid-week. Forecasts keep much of Europe several degrees above seasonal norms for the next fortnight, sustaining mild demand and potential for further injections.
Prompt and near-curve gas softened as Dec-25 replaced Nov-25 at the front and fundamentals remained steady. Norwegian flows have normalised post-maintenance, while US feedgas near 487 mcm/day supports a busy Atlantic LNG schedule. UK and continental ports expect multiple arrivals this week, limiting upside from transient cold or outage risk. With inventories around 82–83 per cent and weather mild, winter risk premia look contained unless a sharper supply or temperature shift materialises.
UK power tracked gas lower, though declines were checked by near-term wind dips and firmer carbon. Day-ahead baseload tightened as low-wind hours boosted gas-for-power, while curve products held within recent ranges. French nuclear availability and interconnector stability helped cap volatility, and continental wind revisions for early November may ease prompt prices again if realised.
Brent steadied near $65/bbl as OPEC+ confirmed a modest December increase before pausing further supply growth in Q1-26. Russian product exports remain constrained by refinery outages and sanctions, while Black Sea logistics faced fresh disruption from drone activity. Carbon was firm, with UKAs edging up and spreads little changed. Orsted secured $6.5 billion investment in Hornsea 3, US feedgas hit record highs, and US–China talks signalled a more constructive trade tone.
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