Snapshot - 18 May 2026
European gas prices opened the week firmly higher, with NBP front month and the winter strip lifting around 2 to 3 p/therm above Friday's settlements as the market absorbed reports of an Iranian drone strike on a nuclear facility in the UAE and renewed threats from Washington to resume strikes on Tehran. NBP Winter 26 traded up to around 126 p/therm and Q4-26 above 127 p/therm. UK day-ahead gas softened modestly as stronger wind generation eased near-term gas-for-power demand and the system opened long.
UK power followed gas higher across the curve, with front month baseload pushing above 104 £/MWh and Winter 26 baseload firming around 5 £/MWh against Friday's close. Day-ahead baseload diverged from the curve and fell sharply, with wind generation expected to remain above seasonal norms through 22 May and gas-for-power demand forecast to drop to around 19 mcm/day. The picture reverses into the back half of next week as wind falls below norm and temperatures climb several degrees above seasonal averages across north-west Europe.
Brent crude pushed back above $109 per barrel as the UAE strike report compounded an already firm geopolitical premium, with WTI just above $105 per barrel. Coal and carbon both moved higher in sympathy, with EUAs around €75.60 per tonne and UKAs at £51.15 per tonne. Supply-side concerns dominate the outlook: peak Norwegian maintenance lands this week with up to 183 mcm/day offline on 20 May, Australian LNG strike action begins on the same day, and EU storage at 36 per cent full continues to inject 30 to 35 per cent below required pace.
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