Snapshot - 15 May 2026
UK and European gas prices firmed on Friday morning as supply-side concerns deepened. NBP front-month moved up nearly 4 per cent against Thursday's settlement, trading above 120 p/therm on indicative pricing, with TTF Jun-26 close to €49/MWh. Norwegian flows slipped on continuing Kårstø maintenance, and while UK LNG sendout improved on the day, it has not been sufficient to offset the impulse from weak wind, below-seasonal temperatures and Asian competition for flexible cargoes.
Power followed gas higher on the prompt and near-dated forward contracts, with UK Jun-26 baseload moving above £100/MWh on the morning. A significant block of UK nuclear outage cover, including Heysham, Torness and imminent Sizewell B maintenance, is keeping CCGTs marginal and tightening the link to gas. Further out, Cal-28 and Cal-29 contracts on continental hubs traded heavier as expectations of strong ETS 2 allowance availability pressured EUAs and carbon-sensitive seasons.
In the wider complex, Brent and WTI held near $106 and $101 per barrel respectively, up around 6 per cent on the week on Middle East risk premia. Coal was flat near $120/tonne for Cal-27, EUA Dec-26 unchanged at €75/tonne and UK ETS Dec-26 indicative at £51.5/tonne. The most actionable directional moves remain in gas and prompt power, with warmer weather and improved wind from the middle of next week the first material downside catalyst the market has had in several sessions.
This Snapshot offers a concise view of market trends. For comprehensive daily reports, strategic analysis and tailored advisory support, Lumley Consulting provides independent insight across gas, power and wider energy markets. Learn more about our premium subscriptions and consultancy services here.