Snapshot - 19 May 2026
UK and European gas spent two choppy sessions absorbing a sharp swing in Middle East risk. Prices jumped on Monday's open as the prospect of US military action against Iran took hold, then gave most of it back as a planned strike was paused for talks. Day-ahead gas and power both settled lower as the prompt premium unwound and milder weather moved into the forecast, though forward contracts firmed.
Power had a domestic twist. Wind fell away on Monday, leaving gas to cover close to 37.5 per cent of GB demand and tightening the link between the two. A recovery in wind is expected today, but the near-term focus has shifted to supply: a heavy round of Norwegian summer maintenance is due to remove substantial volumes from Wednesday, tightening the balance just as temperatures climb. That tension - bullish supply against bearish weather - is keeping the curve supported even as spot drifts sideways this morning.
Across the wider complex, crude firmed on the settlement before easing as tensions cooled, coal pushed higher and carbon held broadly flat. Sterling gained against the dollar. With a Norwegian outage, an Australian LNG strike threat and live geopolitics all in play, two-way risk through the rest of the week remains elevated.
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