Snapshot - 16 March 2026
Energy markets opened firmer on Monday as the Iran conflict moved into its third week with no diplomatic resolution in sight. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, QatarEnergy LNG is in full shutdown, and US strikes near Iran's Kharg Island oil terminal added fresh tension over the weekend. NBP gas is trading around 127-128 p/therm, up from Friday's 126 p/therm settlement, while Brent crude has risen to approximately $105/bbl. The forward gas curve has pushed higher across all tenors, with Sum-26 near 127 p/therm and Win-26 around 124 p/therm.
The conflict-driven risk premium remains the dominant market force, but milder weather across north-west Europe is providing partial offset. Temperatures are expected to reach up to 4°C above seasonal norms midweek, UK gas demand has eased to around 210 mcm/day, and wind generation averaged 15.2 GW last week - nearly double the prior week. Norwegian pipeline flows have increased to 342 mcm/day as recent maintenance winds down, and UK LNG send-out is steady at around 60 mcm/day.
UK power is firmer, with the front-month contract above £100/MWh. Carbon remains weak, with EUAs at €69.16/tonne and UKAs at £39.54/tonne - both near 11-month lows - as strong renewables and soft demand ease the cost of fossil generation. The key question for the week ahead is whether European and international pressure can begin to shift the geopolitical situation, or whether markets will need to price in a more prolonged disruption to Gulf energy flows.
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