Snapshot - 13 March 2026
Wholesale energy prices remain elevated as the Iran conflict shows no sign of easing, with Iran's supreme leader reaffirming that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will continue to be targeted. Brent crude settled above $100/bbl for the first time since 2022, up around 18 per cent on the week, while UK gas seasonal contracts sit roughly 50 per cent above year-ago levels with NBP Sum-26 at 123.65p/therm and Win-26 at 120.80p/therm. Norwegian pipeline flows and LNG send-out from non-Qatari sources remain healthy, but the prolonged loss of Qatari supply continues to tighten the outlook for European summer injection.
The notable counter-move came from carbon, where EU ETS allowances sold off sharply - down over 4 per cent on the day - after EU leaders signalled urgent action to lower electricity prices and reduce carbon price volatility. That drag pulled further-dated power contracts lower across the Continent, with German spark spreads falling to an eight-month low. UK power was more resilient on the prompt, supported by gas strength and constrained nuclear availability, though elevated wind generation is capping near-term upside.
This morning's session has opened with a mixed tone. UK gas is broadly flat at the front of the curve with the wider strip slightly firmer, oil has eased after the US issued a 30-day licence for Russian crude purchases at sea, and wind is expected to recover strongly into next week. The market remains heavily influenced by the duration of the Hormuz disruption and any policy response from Brussels on carbon pricing.
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