Snapshot - 12 March 2026
UK wholesale energy prices extended their upward trend on Wednesday and into Thursday morning as escalating attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz continued to build risk premium across gas, power, and oil markets. A coordinated release of 400 million barrels of emergency oil reserves by 32 countries failed to cap gains, with Brent crude briefly touching $100/bbl and NBP gas curves posting gains of 6-7 p/therm on the day. This morning prompt gas is trading near 128.70 p/therm with further upside at time of writing.
UK power curves tracked gas higher, with Sum-26 baseload around 93-96 £/MWh, though prompt pricing softened as a strong rebound in wind generation eased short-term system pressure. Nuclear availability remains constrained by multiple outages across the fleet, keeping CCGT firmly in the balancing margin. Carbon markets are notably steady given the surrounding volatility, with EUAs around €71.86/tonne and UKAs at £40.07/tonne.
The near-term outlook is for tightening UK fundamentals as temperatures drop through the weekend and gas-for-power demand rises, though models suggest a return to milder conditions after 22 March. The direction of the broader complex remains firmly tied to developments in the Strait of Hormuz, where overnight tanker attacks and military operations continue to disrupt shipping and maintain elevated risk premia across the energy sector.
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