Snapshot - 11 March 2026
Energy markets experienced exceptional volatility on Tuesday as comments from President Trump suggesting the US-Iran conflict is nearing its conclusion triggered a dramatic sell-off across the complex. Natural gas fell sharply, with the NBP front season losing more than 15 per cent and Brent crude dropping over 11 per cent to settle around $87.80/bbl. UK day-ahead power collapsed from £124/MWh to just under £64/MWh as strong wind generation and bearish sentiment combined. Carbon was the notable exception, with EUAs rising to €72.91/tonne on fuel-switching support.
The relief rally proved short-lived. Overnight military escalation in the Strait of Hormuz - including the destruction of mine-laying vessels and damage to commercial shipping - reasserted risk premiums into Wednesday morning trading. NBP has recovered 10-12 p/therm from Tuesday's lows, while TTF pushed back above €50/MWh. Fundamentally, the UK gas system remains adequately supplied with LNG send-out steady and Norwegian flows rebounding as maintenance concludes at key facilities.
The tug-of-war between diplomatic optimism and physical disruption risk continues to drive extreme intraday swings. EU storage recorded its first net injection of the year, providing some seasonal comfort, but prompt pricing remains hostage to developments in the Strait. With UK temperatures due to cool into the weekend and wind generation forecast to drop off after 16 March, the next few sessions could remain choppy.
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