Snapshot - 10 March 2026
Energy markets sold off sharply on Tuesday morning after President Trump signalled overnight that the Iran conflict could end "very soon." Gas, power and oil all fell heavily as the geopolitical risk premium that has built up since late February began to unwind. NBP front-month gas dropped around 17 p/therm to trade near 127 p/therm, while Brent crude shed more than $10/bbl from Monday's settlement of $98.96/bbl. UK seasonal gas and power contracts posted double-digit losses, with Crown's Summer 26 gas offer down 35.50 p/therm and Summer 26 baseload power down £15.50/MWh.
The physical picture provided additional bearish momentum on the demand side. Temperatures across northwest Europe remain well above seasonal norms and wind generation is expected to increase through the week, reducing gas-for-power burn. However, Norwegian flows to the UK dropped materially as new maintenance began at Ormen Lange and Kristin, and LNG terminal send-out remained healthy. European gas storage sits at 29% with withdrawal rates slowing.
Despite the selldown, significant uncertainty remains. The Strait of Hormuz and Qatari gas facilities are still closed, Iran has stated it will not lift its blockade while strikes continue, and Bahrain's Bapco declared Force Majeure after weekend strikes hit its refinery. The market must now weigh whether Trump's rhetoric translates into a genuine ceasefire or whether the conflict-driven premium rebuilds. Carbon markets diverged, with EUAs edging higher to €70.90/tonne while UKAs fell £2.46/tonne. Further-dated contracts were more resilient, suggesting the market views the current volatility as primarily a near-term risk event.
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