Snapshot - 09 March 2026
Energy markets gapped sharply higher on Monday morning as the Middle East conflict widened over the weekend. NBP front-month gas is being offered above 155p/therm - up roughly 21p/therm from Friday's settlement - while TTF Apr-26 jumped approximately €8/MWh to trade back above €60/MWh. Brent crude surged from around $93/bbl toward $120/bbl in early trade following further strikes on Saudi and Bahraini energy infrastructure and the near-standstill of Strait of Hormuz transit.
The geopolitical risk premium now dominates all corners of the energy complex. Bahrain has declared force majeure, Iran has appointed a new hardline Supreme Leader signalling continuity of the conflict, and EU gas storage sits at just 29.4 per cent fullness heading into the refill season. Gains are not confined to the prompt - Cal-27 gas contracts have also lifted materially as the market prices in prolonged supply disruption.
UK power has followed the upward move, with Summer-26 baseload offered around £110/MWh, up £15/MWh from Friday. Wind generation collapsed to 4.5 GW on Friday and is forecast to remain below seasonal averages this week, keeping CCGT firmly at the top of the generation stack. Coal-fired generation has returned to economic viability for April, an unusual development reflecting the severity of the current pricing environment.
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