Snapshot - 06 March 2026
UK wholesale gas and power markets pulled back from multi-year highs this week but remain elevated as the Strait of Hormuz closure, Ras Laffan shutdown and the sinking of a Russian LNG tanker keep supply risks front and centre. The NBP front month settled around 131-135 p/therm on Friday morning, down from a Tuesday peak above 170 p/therm, while UK baseload power for April is trading just above £100/MWh. Seasonal contracts have firmed materially week on week across both commodities.
The wider energy complex reflected the geopolitical stress, with Brent crude up roughly 20 per cent on the week to around $85 per barrel and coal gaining 8 per cent. Carbon was the exception - EUAs drifted lower to €70.35 per tonne while UK ETS allowances fell sharply to £41.90 per tonne, widening the cross-scheme discount. Mild weather forecasts for the UK and northwest Europe through mid-March are providing a partial offset to the supply-driven price support by capping heating and power demand.
On the physical side, UK gas supply is comfortable for now with healthy LNG send-out and Norwegian flows holding steady. However, the S-26 gas contract trading at a premium to W-26 highlights market concern over summer refilling, particularly as LNG cargoes have begun diverting to Asia where prices command a premium. Wind generation has underperformed this week, keeping gas-for-power demand elevated, though an improvement is expected from late next week.
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