Snapshot - 05 March 2026
Gas and power prices retreated from multi-year highs on 4 March as reports of preliminary Iran-US peace contact briefly lifted sentiment, only for Iranian officials to rebut those reports and prices to partially recover in morning trading on 5 March. NBP day-ahead settled at 125.50 p/therm with the front month at 126.88 p/therm, while UK day-ahead baseload settled at £116.99/MWh - both well above pre-conflict levels despite the session's partial correction. Forward contracts across the curve gave back 10-15 p/therm on gas and £8-13/MWh on power before morning bids firmed things back up.
The fundamental picture remains essentially unchanged. QatarEnergy's force majeure at Ras Laffan is still in force, Iran continues to threaten Strait of Hormuz transit, and Europe is entering the injection season with storage well below seasonal norms and its largest LNG supplier offline. Gas-for-power burn is rising as UK wind output declines, nuclear availability is unusually constrained, and the Summer 26/Winter 26 spread inversion on both gas and power signals market anxiety about the ability to refill storage at adequate pace should the disruption prove prolonged. Brent held flat at $81.40/bbl, EUAs eased to €70.76/tonne and UK carbon fell to £43.84/tonne.
The US has outlined shipping protection measures for the Strait and the UK has deployed HMS Dragon to Cyprus, but neither development materially changes the supply picture. Yesterday's price move on unconfirmed peace talk reports - and its subsequent reversal - illustrates the degree to which markets remain headline-driven. Until there is a credible pathway to restarting Qatari LNG production and restoring safe passage through the Strait, the geopolitical risk premium looks likely to remain embedded across the forward curve.
This Snapshot offers a concise view of market trends. For comprehensive daily reports, strategic analysis and tailored advisory support, Lumley Consulting provides independent insight across gas, power and wider energy markets. Learn more about our premium subscriptions and consultancy services here.