Snapshot - 04 March 2026
UK wholesale energy markets remained sharply elevated as the Middle East conflict entered its fifth day, with the disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continuing to dominate price action. NBP day-ahead gas settled at 137 p/therm - roughly 83 per cent above pre-conflict levels - while UK baseload power settled above 121 £/MWh. The prompt gas curve has pulled back slightly from Tuesday's extreme highs but remains more than double the levels seen last week, with Sum-26 gas around 127-132 p/therm and Win-26 around 109-115 p/therm depending on the pricing source.
Across the wider complex, Brent crude climbed above $81/bbl, up around 15 per cent on the week, while ARA coal pushed past $126/tonne and EUA carbon rose to above €73/tonne. Sterling was broadly steady. The US and France both announced measures to protect maritime trade through the Gulf, but operational details remain vague and markets are treating these as supportive rather than decisive.
UK gas fundamentals remain comfortable for now - mild weather is holding demand around 70 mcm below seasonal normal and Norwegian pipeline flows have increased. However, EU storage is running below year-earlier levels and the potential loss of Qatari LNG cargoes raises questions about summer restocking. UK nuclear availability has deteriorated further with fresh outages at Heysham, and below-normal wind generation is adding to reliance on gas-fired power. Markets will remain highly sensitive to developments in the Middle East and any change to the status of shipping through the Strait.
This Snapshot offers a concise view of market trends. For comprehensive daily reports, strategic analysis and tailored advisory support, Lumley Consulting provides independent insight across gas, power and wider energy markets. Learn more about our premium subscriptions and consultancy services here.