Snapshot - 17 March 2026
European energy markets remain firmly shaped by the Middle East conflict, now entering its third week. Gas curves firmed across Monday and into Tuesday morning, with NBP front-month trading around 133 p/therm and TTF above €52/MWh. UK power also strengthened, with Apr-26 baseload lifting above £100/MWh. Storage across Europe sits at around 29 per cent - below average for the time of year - keeping the approaching injection season firmly in focus.
Brent crude settled near $100/bbl but recovered to touch $105 at points on Monday as diplomatic efforts around the Strait of Hormuz produced more rhetoric than resolution. Carbon prices were broadly flat, with EUAs at €69/t and UKAs easing to £38.28/t. Saudi Arabia's increased use of the East-West Petroline to reroute crude via the Red Sea offers partial relief but cannot fully replace volumes normally transiting the strait.
Weather models point to above-seasonal temperatures across the UK and north-west Europe through mid-week, which should moderate gas demand, though a reduction in wind generation later in the week will partially offset the bearish weather signal. Norwegian supply is temporarily curtailed by Karsto maintenance, but LNG arrivals remain healthy and the physical balance is manageable in the near term.
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