Snapshot - 16 January 2026
Gas and power extended the rally as colder late-January forecasts and low storage reinforced prompt risk premia. Front-month NBP pushed through 91 p/therm and TTF February traded near €34.9/MWh, marking the strongest weekly move since late 2023. European storage sits around 52 per cent versus a five-year norm near 67 per cent, sharpening concern that inventories could fall materially by end-winter if the projected cold from 26 January persists. Carbon continued to add support, with EUAs closing near €92.2/t, while oil eased as immediate Iran escalation fears faded.
Gas strength was concentrated at the front. Weather models have aligned on a colder regime from late January, lifting heating demand expectations and accelerating short-covering. Norwegian flows remain stable around 341 mcm per day and LNG cover is ample, with around thirteen cargoes due over the next fortnight, but this has not offset anxiety over end-season stocks. Summer-26 NBP rose to about 70.1 p/therm, narrowing sharply versus Winter-26 and signalling growing concern over refill economics if withdrawals stay heavy. Further-dated contracts moved less as LNG optionality and injection costs capped upside.
Power tracked gas higher, with UK day-ahead baseload near £99.5/MWh and February baseload close to £98.8/MWh. Low wind expectations through late January and new nuclear outages at Torness and Heysham tightened margins and lifted peak risk. Clean sparks widened on the prompt as higher gas and carbon fed through, while curve power stayed bid on residual load concerns during prolonged low-wind periods.
Oil and carbon framed the backdrop. Brent slipped back to the mid-$60s as geopolitical risk premium eased, leaving the crude curve signalling comfortable supply. Carbon remained the firmer leg, extending its rally on higher thermal generation and positioning. Elevated EUA and UKA levels continue to underpin forward power while the near-term gas and power narrative remains dominated by weather and storage risk.
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