Snapshot - 19 January 2026
European gas and power reversed sharply at the start of the week as weather models downgraded the severity of the late-January cold. Last week’s rally, the strongest in over two years, unwound quickly at the front of the curve, with NBP prompt down around 10 per cent from Friday’s highs. Power followed gas lower on the prompt, while curves proved more resilient. Carbon eased alongside gas and oil remained range-bound, with new US tariff threats on Europe adding a softer macro tone.
Gas retreated at the front as the cold premium was pared back. February NBP fell toward the high-80s p/therm and TTF slipped back toward the mid-€30s/MWh. Despite the correction, fundamentals remain tight. European storage sits near 50 per cent, well below seasonal norms, keeping focus on summer refill risk. Norwegian flows are steady around the high-330 mcm per day range and LNG send-out has increased, providing short-term balance, but not enough to remove concern over end-winter stock levels. Seasonal gas eased modestly, with Summer 26 softening while Winter 26 held firmer.
Power tracked gas lower at the prompt as wind forecasts improved for the coming week, easing gas-for-power burn after last week’s low-wind period. Curve power held up better, supported by carbon and ongoing nuclear constraints in the UK and France. Several UK units remain offline and recent storm damage has trimmed French availability, keeping a structural bid under Winter contracts despite the prompt pullback.
Oil stayed broadly flat, with Brent in the mid-$60s per barrel as geopolitical risk premia faded. Carbon softened slightly after last week’s strong run, with EUAs easing from recent highs and UKAs underperforming. The UKA–EUA spread remains a key medium-term watch, but near-term direction across energy markets is again dominated by weather confidence and storage trajectories rather than policy signals.
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