Snapshot - 15 January 2026
Gas and power firmed on renewed late-January cold risk as model runs converged on a colder spell from around 26 January. Prompt contracts led the move, with Feb-26 NBP trading near 85.75 p/therm and front-month UK baseload around £97.50/MWh. The rally was weather-driven rather than structural. Strong LNG arrivals and steady Norwegian flows capped gains beyond the front, while carbon added support. Oil eased after US rhetoric on Iran softened immediate escalation risk.
Gas strengthened at the front as storage sensitivity increased. EU inventories are down to about 52.5 per cent, well below last year, keeping focus on end-season stocks and refill risk. Norwegian nominations remain steady near 339 mcm per day and UK LNG send-out rose day on day, with eleven cargoes due over the next fortnight. The UK system opened marginally short but demand is still running below seasonal norms. Further out, seasonal contracts eased as LNG optionality and injection economics limited follow-through unless the cold extends or intensifies.
Power tracked gas higher on the near curve, though day-ahead eased as wind picked up. Front-month UK baseload held near £97.50/MWh, supported by low wind expectations into late January and upcoming nuclear outages at Heysham and Torness. Interconnectors remain supportive, but curve power stayed firmer than gas equivalents on carbon strength and residual load concerns during low-wind periods. Any softening in the weather outlook would likely unwind prompt premiums quickly.
Oil and carbon set the wider tone. Brent slipped back toward the mid-$60s as geopolitical risk premium faded and physical markets stayed well supplied. Carbon firmed with UKA Dec-26 near £72.7/t and EUAs around €91.8/t, reflecting higher thermal generation needs rather than policy signals. Elevated carbon continues to underpin forward power even as gas volatility remains weather-led.
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