Snapshot - 14 January 2026
European gas eased from Tuesday’s highs as weather models trimmed the late-January cold signal. The front-month NBP fell back towards 80 p/therm after briefly trading above 82 p/therm, but price support remains strong given low storage. Pan-European stocks were about 53 per cent on 12 January, around 13 percentage points below last year, keeping attention on summer refill risk. Oil gave back gains as the immediate Iran risk premium faded, while carbon held firm near €91/t.
Gas softened on the prompt and near curve as the cold spell was marked shallower and shorter around 26 January. Norwegian nominations were steady to slightly higher at roughly 339 mcm/d. UK regas eased marginally, with Dragon lower and South Hook steady. Twelve LNG cargoes are scheduled into UK terminals over the next fortnight, reinforcing near-term cover. Summer-26 eased with the weather downgrade, but injection economics remain underpinned by the early-season draw profile.
Power tracked gas. UK spot settled near £95.93/MWh on weaker wind, with wind output averaging about 12 GW and tightening margins. The near-term wind profile stays choppy, which keeps peak sensitivity elevated. Curve power was more resilient than gas on carbon strength and ongoing nuclear constraints, with Hartlepool offline, Heysham 2-8 out until late January, and Torness 2 entering an extended outage.
Oil and carbon were the key cross-commodity inputs. Brent slipped below $67/bbl and WTI below $61/bbl as the immediate disruption risk eased and Venezuelan flows added supply optionality. EUAs held around €90.7/t and UKAs near £70.9/t, supporting forward clean costs even as gas corrected. Near-term direction remains weather-led, with storage and wind the main amplifiers.
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