Snapshot - 13 January 2026
Gas and power extended the weather-led rally into Monday as forecasts confirmed temperatures dropping below seasonal norms through late January. Near-dated contracts led gains. Day-ahead NBP rose 6.45 p/therm to 79.80 p/therm and UK day-ahead baseload climbed £3.31/MWh to £89.60/MWh. Colder signals coincided with lower wind and ongoing Norwegian maintenance, tightening prompt balances. Carbon added support, with EUAs settling at €90.10/t, a 28-month high.
Gas strengthened at the front as colder forecasts lifted heating demand expectations and gas-for-power burn. Norwegian flows held near 337 mcm per day, but maintenance at Nyhamna continues to remove about 20 mcm per day until 16 January, with further works at Aasta Hansteen and Dvalin from 21 January. LNG cover remains strong, though lower send-out at South Hook is expected. EU storage fell to about 54 per cent, down 12 percentage points year on year, increasing sensitivity to sustained cold. Further out, gains were smaller. Summer-26 rose to 66.08 p/therm and the summer-winter spread compressed sharply, weakening incentives to inject later in the year.
Power followed gas higher, driven by colder, drier weather and reduced renewables. Lower wind tightened evening margins and lifted CCGT burn, while interconnectors offered partial relief. Feb-26 baseload rose sharply as traders priced late-January cold, while summer contracts also firmed. Clean spark spreads narrowed modestly as both gas and carbon rose, though forward power remained supported by policy expectations and broadly stable nuclear availability.
Oil firmed on geopolitical risk after renewed tariff threats linked to Iran, but physical indicators still point to ample supply. Carbon was the strongest leg. EUAs reached €90.10/t and UKAs £70.03/t as colder forecasts lifted expected residual load and German auctions cleared strongly. The combination of colder weather, tight near-term gas balances and elevated carbon continues to underpin prompt power, while LNG inflows cap the upside.
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