Snapshot - 16 April 2026
European gas and power markets fell sharply on Wednesday as the US-Iran ceasefire held firm and mild weather suppressed demand. NBP day-ahead settled around 103 p/therm - down more than 5 p/therm on the day - while UK baseload power dropped to around £85 per MWh on the back of a surge in wind generation to nearly 18GW. Seasonal gas contracts are down 7-9 per cent on the week, with the geopolitical risk premium continuing to unwind.
Thursday morning has seen a modest rebound on gas as Norwegian pipeline flows tightened overnight, with Langeled nominations dropping sharply and further planned maintenance due from Friday. Brent crude remains just below $95 per barrel, coal prices continue to soften, and carbon was mixed with EUAs lower and UKAs broadly flat. Power curves are tracking gas, though nuclear outages at Heysham and Torness are reducing available firm capacity.
The near-term outlook is shaped by two competing forces. Mild weather and strong wind should keep demand soft through the end of this week, but a cooler spell forecast for next week and the step-up in Norwegian maintenance provide potential support. The market remains headline-driven, with progress on US-Iran negotiations the key catalyst for further direction.
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