Snapshot - 17 April 2026
Risk premium drove another firm settlement across the wholesale complex on Thursday as Norwegian maintenance, European storage draws and Middle East tensions converged. UK gas and baseload power closed materially higher across the front of the curve, while crude rallied almost 5 per cent on the day. Carbon was the standout mover as confirmation that the UK Carbon Price Support will be abolished from April 2028 drove UK ETS Dec 26 up more than 7 per cent in a single session, pulling forward-dated power prices higher with it.
Friday's session has opened with a more mixed tone. Reports of a 10-day Israel-Lebanon ceasefire and the prospect of US-Iran weekend talks have taken some heat out of the front of the gas and oil curves, with prompt NBP easing and Brent slipping back below the $100/bbl handle. Further along the curve pricing has been more resilient as the market awaits clarity on whether de-escalation holds, and whether shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will normalise.
Supply and demand fundamentals reinforce the cautious tone. European storage has flipped to net withdrawal and sits well below year-ago levels, while Norwegian flows continue to tighten on a heavy spring maintenance schedule. UK wind generation has run around a fifth above seasonal norm this week, cushioning prompt power, but forecasts show wind falling back below average across most of the continent next week as temperatures drop.
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