Snapshot - 15 April 2026
Energy markets moved sharply lower on 15 April as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East showed further signs of easing. The US-Iran ceasefire is holding and fresh talks may resume within days, driving a broad unwinding of risk premium. NBP gas fell to around 105 p/therm - down from 117 p/therm just two days ago - while Brent crude broke below $100/bbl for the first time in the recent rally to settle near $95/bbl. Mild weather and improving wind forecasts added further bearish momentum.
UK power tracked gas lower, with day-ahead baseload settling at £77/MWh on Tuesday before stabilising around £82/MWh on Wednesday morning. Seasonal contracts held up better, with back-dated winters firming on nuclear availability concerns and carbon support. European gas storage has seen 10 straight days of net injections, sitting at roughly 30 per cent full, easing some of the inventory concern that characterised early April.
The near-term outlook remains sensitive to any shift in Middle East developments, but the direction is clearly softer for now. Norwegian maintenance at Vesterled from Friday and the congested UK nuclear outage schedule will provide some underlying support, though the combination of fading risk premium, mild weather, and healthy supply suggests further downside is possible if geopolitical headlines stay benign.
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