Snapshot - 14 April 2026
European energy markets softened on Tuesday morning after Monday's geopolitically driven gains. Gas prices retreated as rising temperatures cut heating demand and the US-Iran situation showed no further escalation overnight. NBP prompt gas edged below 115 p/therm, while seasonal contracts fell more sharply - Win-26 gas dropped to around 111 p/therm and Sum-27 to 83 p/therm. UK power tracked lower, with Win-26 baseload at 93.25 £/MWh. Brent crude held near $100/bbl as the Strait of Hormuz blockade continued.
The underlying fundamentals offer some comfort. UK wind generation is expected to improve markedly mid-week, reducing gas-for-power demand, and European storage injections are running at a healthy pace. However, Norwegian maintenance is intensifying through April and May, French nuclear output has fallen to a six-month low, and multiple UK nuclear units are offline for planned and unplanned works.
The Strait of Hormuz remains the key wildcard. The US blockade of Iranian ports began Monday, and while non-Iranian shipping is reportedly being allowed through, energy flows via the strait have declined significantly. Diplomatic talks between the US and Iran may resume in Islamabad this week, and any progress could trigger a sharp unwind of the risk premiums currently embedded across the commodity complex.
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