Snapshot - 16 December 2025
Prices were mixed and range bound. Early support from lower wind and firmer carbon faded as headlines around a possible Ukraine peace framework trimmed risk premia. Physical supply stayed comfortable, with strong Norwegian pipeline deliveries, steady US feedgas and rising LNG arrivals into Europe. Carbon rallied to fresh year-to-date highs on options expiry and a lighter auction schedule, lifting thermal generation costs and cushioning power from gas weakness.
Gas eased into the close after an early bid. Norwegian exports held near full rates and UK nominations covered a large share of demand, while European LNG receipts accelerated week on week. Storage sits a little above seventy per cent and withdrawals remain orderly, preserving flexibility even as heating demand edges higher. Seasonal contracts drifted lower on improved supply visibility and milder late-December temperature guidance, leaving risks two sided and largely weather led.
Power followed a similar intraday pattern. Day-ahead and week-ahead firmed early on lower wind and tight morning margins, then eased as output recovered. Gas-for-power stayed elevated, but higher carbon prices had the greater influence on sparks and limited downside. Interconnector flows were stable and nuclear availability steady. Along the curve, Summer 26 and Winter 26 edged lower with gas, though elevated EU carbon continues to underpin forward clean costs.
Elsewhere, Brent slipped further and briefly traded below 60 dollars per barrel as oversupply signals met optimism on diplomacy. Time spreads flattened and selective contango re-emerged, consistent with ample prompt supply. EUAs diverged from UKAs, with stronger EUA positioning supporting European power while UKAs lagged but stayed firm. LNG freight remains elevated on Atlantic routes due to high US loadings, yet strong European availability continues to cap hub premia and reinforce a balanced near-term outlook.
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