Snapshot - 17 December 2025
Gas traded in a narrow range as comfortable supply from Norway and strong LNG arrivals kept the prompt anchored. Carbon strength and intermittent geopolitical headlines added mild upside pressure into the close, but fundamentals remained benign. European storage is healthy for mid-December and earlier injections have limited the pace of withdrawals. Oil was steady to slightly firmer, supported by renewed focus on Russian and Venezuelan exports, though broader demand signals remain soft.
Norwegian pipeline deliveries held near 330 to 340 mcm per day after maintenance cleared, balancing the system through cooler spells in north-west Europe. LNG inflows stayed strong, with about 4.5 bcm delivered into Europe last week - the highest in nine months - underpinned by high US feedgas and favourable Atlantic economics. Storage levels remain in the low seventies per cent, with withdrawals manageable for the season. Front-end gas softened early on higher wind forecasts and a milder two-week temperature outlook before recovering alongside firmer carbon. Curve pricing remains range bound with modest premia, and risks are still defined by weather, LNG flows and any Norwegian disruptions.
UK power followed gas intraday but was buffered by carbon. Prompt baseload eased on higher wind expectations through mid-December, limiting gas-for-power burn, while the clean spark improved at times as carbon rallied. Curve movements were marginal. Softer macro indicators and steady French nuclear output curbed upside follow-through, while interconnectors helped clear surplus renewable generation. The short-term focus remains on wind volatility and how long carbon support endures.
Oil edged up from recent lows, with geopolitical developments offsetting oversupply concerns. US talk of tighter sanctions on Russia and a Venezuelan export blockade provided tactical support, but inventory levels and flat time spreads continue to signal a well-supplied market. Carbon remained firm, with EUAs hitting ten-month highs on reduced auction volumes and positioning. UKAs tracked higher but the EUA–UKA spread stayed wide, leaving UK power comparatively more sensitive to domestic carbon movements.
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