Snapshot - 15 December 2025
Gas and power were broadly softer into the new week as milder weather and firmer Norwegian supply eased prompt risks. LNG availability remains comfortable and European storage withdrawals have slowed, leaving the system resilient for mid December. Peace-talk headlines and occasional supply noise continue to move sentiment intraday, but have not altered the underlying balance. Oil eased on surplus signals, while earlier carbon strength faded into options expiry.
NBP and TTF drifted lower as temperature revisions turned milder and wind forecasts improved. Norwegian pipeline nominations were strong around the mid-330 mcm per day range, offsetting minor field-level noise. LNG send-out stayed high, with Atlantic cargoes favouring Europe amid muted Asian demand and robust US feedgas. EU storage sits a little above seventy per cent, with withdrawals moderating as weather softened. Forward gas stabilised after last week’s pullback, leaving curves range bound and sensitive to forecast shifts rather than supply stress.
UK power tracked gas lower at the front but was cushioned by carbon and intermittent interconnector constraints. High wind weighed on prompt prices at times, before late-session ramps lifted imbalance costs. French nuclear availability and steady imports continued to anchor baseload, while week-ahead weakened on improved renewable and temperature outlooks. Further out, Summer and Winter strips eased with gas but held small premiums versus recent lows, reflecting carbon support and cautious hedging.
Elsewhere, Brent edged lower as investors focused on ample on-water supply and limited tightening despite logistics noise. Carbon was mixed, with EUAs giving back earlier gains as options effects faded and auctions resumed, while UKAs underperformed then recovered, leaving the spread volatile. Elevated carbon still limits downside in forward power, but near-term pricing remains dominated by renewables, weather and demand rather than commodity scarcity.
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