Snapshot - 12 December 2025
EU carbon rallied to a ten-month high, providing the main upward impulse across the complex, while gas firmed modestly on the near curve. January 2026 NBP rose by around 0.6 p/th as lower wind output and slightly cooler temperatures tightened short-term balances. Power followed via higher clean costs rather than fuel scarcity. Fundamentals remain comfortable. EU storage is near 71.6 per cent and Norwegian pipeline supply is robust at around 340 mcm per day. Optimism around a rapid Russia-Ukraine settlement faded after comments from Kyiv, tempering the recent unwind in geopolitical premia.
Gas strength was weather-led. A dip in near-term wind and a cooler short-range forecast lifted the prompt into the close, but steady Norwegian flows and good LNG availability capped follow-through. Curve moves were contained. Stocks are below last year but adequate for mid-December, limiting aggressive buying unless cold persists. With Asian LNG demand muted and US feedgas strong, Europe continues to attract balanced Atlantic supply.
UK power tracked the gas and carbon mix. Day-ahead and week-ahead found support from weaker wind and modest cooling, with peak hours the tightest. Interconnectors provided cover, but higher EUAs lifted marginal CCGT costs and widened clean sparks. Further out the curve, carbon strength underpinned prices even as thermal availability remained steady.
Elsewhere, oil was range-bound on ample inventories and limited macro impulse. LNG freight stayed firm on sustained US exports, though Asian spot prices have not pulled decisively above Europe. Coal was steady and secondary. Near-term direction remains driven by weather realisations and carbon positioning rather than supply stress.
This Snapshot offers a concise view of market trends. For comprehensive daily reports, strategic analysis and tailored advisory support, Lumley Consulting provides independent insight across gas, power and wider energy markets. Learn more about our premium subscriptions and consultancy services here.