Snapshot - 11 December 2025
Gas and power eased after forecasts turned milder and week-ahead wind across eastern Europe was revised higher. NBP front month fell 2.42 p/therm as prompt demand expectations softened. Power sparks firmed along the curve as gas weakened faster than electricity. GB generation remained wind led midweek, with high load factors limiting CCGT burn and keeping day-ahead power contained.
Front-month NBP dropped on Wednesday as higher temperature runs for the UK and Germany reduced heating needs and week-ahead wind revisions trimmed expected gas-for-power. Trading interest stayed focused on the front, with little fresh supply risk beyond short maintenance and weather. Norwegian deliveries have seen minimal interruption in recent weeks, capping rallies and reinforcing a narrow range close to multi-year lows. Winter products held a small risk premium into early December, but fundamentals remain comfortable. Storage withdrawals are orderly and LNG availability remains strong across the Atlantic basin. Upside risks centre on Norwegian flow interruptions, an extended cold spell or any breakdown in current geopolitical détente.
GB power followed gas lower, though sparks improved as electricity held value better than fuel. Wind averaged around 21 GW and supplied more than half of GB generation on Wednesday, muting CCGT output despite softer interconnector imports. That mix limited prompt volatility and kept near-dated baseload stable. Further along the curve, power was steadier than gas, with participants citing near-term weather as the main driver. Carbon did little to amplify moves and markets traded tight ranges while monitoring temperature updates and interconnector conditions.
Oil was range bound as traders weighed steady supply growth against seasonally softer demand. Time spreads remained subdued. Carbon was mixed, with EUAs easing modestly after testing recent highs and UKAs broadly stable. The softer EUA finish added a small headwind to far-dated power but remained secondary to weather-driven gas moves. Other developments included an EU methane-compliance path for US LNG, a German grid adequacy warning from 2031, confirmation of wind dominance in GB midweek generation and continued steady storage withdrawals and supply across Europe.
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