Snapshot - 10 December 2025
Prices firmed on Tuesday but gains were contained by comfortable supply and a still-mild near-term outlook. Front-month NBP rose about 1.8 p/th and UK power settled around £1.5/MWh higher. A downward revision to this week’s wind supported the prompt and near curve, while Norwegian nominations stayed near 333 mcm/day and LNG availability remained adequate. UKAs recovered around £0.3/t after Monday’s slip, but carbon offered only limited support. EU storage withdrawals continued as operators optimised inventories against softer hub prices, leaving the market range bound with a modest weather premium.
NBP and TTF opened firmer on a short burst of colder conditions and lower renewables, then faded as the temperature path into next week shifted warmer. UKCS output was steady and the prompt stayed well supplied. EU storage was around 72.5 per cent after stronger draws, consistent with optimisation rather than structural tightness. Curve moves were measured. The front quarter tracked the prompt early but settled back as liquidity thinned. US feedgas remains near recent highs and Asian buying selective, keeping North West Europe competitive for marginal cargoes once freight is included, with upside risk mainly from a Norwegian derating, a sharper wind shortfall or geopolitics-led logistics disruption.
UK day-ahead eased from session highs as wind stabilised and imports remained available, but week-ahead and December held support from the weaker renewable profile for the rest of this week. CCGT continued to flex around ramps and nuclear availability was broadly on plan, with no material new thermal deratings flagged. Further out, Summer-26 and Winter-26 remained soft, with power following carbon and gas only partially. Clean sparks narrowed across many mid-dated strips as power underperformed fuel, while very far-dated seasons were stickier on thin liquidity. With temperatures forecast above average next week and wind expected to rebound, prompt volatility should stay episodic rather than systemic.
Crude stayed range bound as the 2026 surplus narrative and rising oil on water capped rallies, with a shallow forward curve signalling comfortable balances. Coal calendars hovered just under $100/t. Carbon was uneven, with UKAs firmer and EUAs broadly steady after recent options and auction-calendar support, keeping the EUA–UKA spread wide and relevant for GB versus continental clean-spark economics. Other developments included Italy outlining a €1.6 billion gas tariff reform package, Telecom Plus confirming talks with OVO, renewed focus on UK grid-queue constraints, a provisional EU 2040 target deal, further scaling back of early-stage hydrogen projects and continued “super glut” commentary around looser oil balances in 2026.
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