Snapshot - 09 December 2025
Carbon firmed while gas softened, leaving power broadly flat to slightly lower by the close. EUA strength reflected options expiry positioning and the approaching auction pause, while UKAs slipped. Near-term weather remains supportive into the weekend but trends back toward seasonal next week. Supply cover stayed comfortable with steady Norwegian flows and adequate LNG nominations, leaving price risk concentrated in wind variability and any credible progress on ceasefire talks.
NBP and TTF eased despite a cooler turn and lower wind in the very near term, as the market focused on the next fortnight where temperatures lift back toward seasonal. Norwegian exports held near 333 mcm/day and UK balances remained manageable with interconnector swings and steady regas. EU storage fell to about 72.5 per cent after faster withdrawals last week, below last year but consistent with optimisation while spot stays weak. With US feedgas strong and Asian procurement mixed, Europe continues to pull discretionary Atlantic cargoes, keeping a ceiling on prompt rallies unless outages, shipping disruption or a wind-driven demand shock emerges.
Prompt power drifted as wind recovered intraday and imports stayed available. Lower wind this week lent early support, but the curve faded as the milder outlook returned. CCGT continued to run flexibly around renewable ramps and nuclear output was broadly on plan, leaving shape driven by short wind lulls rather than systemic tightness. Further out, carbon strength limited downside and kept clean sparks broadly stable, while French oversupply guidance and firm interconnector capacity continued to cap regional prices during renewable dips.
Beyond gas, EUAs rose while UKAs fell by around £0.4/t, narrowing the spread and offering modest relative support to GB power on the curve. With compliance largely complete, carbon pricing remains technical and headline-led in the near term. Oil stayed range bound with a flat-to-slight contango curve into 2026, as growing Russian crude on water and longer voyages weighed on differentials and kept the liquids tone soft. Other developments included French signals of multi-year power oversupply, progress on a Morocco LNG import hub at Nador, further growth in undelivered Russian crude at sea, the mechanical support to EUAs from options and the auction pause, and steady Norwegian flows keeping Europe’s balance sheet comfortable.
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