Snapshot - 08 December 2025
Prices softened into the weekend as a milder 14-day outlook and stronger wind expectations removed risk premia from the front of the curves. Liquidity was light and rallies faded quickly, leaving gas range bound and power drifting lower into the close. Norwegian nominations were stable, LNG send-out firm and storage at healthy seasonal levels. Carbon eased and Asian pull stayed modest, reinforcing a gentle bearish tone unless weather turns colder or wind underperforms.
NBP and TTF edged down across the prompt and near curve as UK balances stayed comfortable. Higher terminal nominations and steady Norwegian flows offset early tightness, linepack returned to near neutral by the afternoon and storage withdrawals slowed compared with the previous cold spell. Further out, the curve found support at recent floors but could not hold intraday bounces. Strong US feedgas and a busy Atlantic loading slate continue to anchor supply, with Europe retaining enough premium to attract marginal cargoes. Funds have added to TTF shorts, leaving the market range bound with a soft bias absent colder revisions, Norwegian deratings or LNG slippage.
UK power followed gas lower, led by near-delivery products. Day-ahead eased as wind’s share rose and temperatures stayed above normal, reducing CCGT burn through the evening ramp. Next week’s wind projection, well above seasonal at around 15.7 GW, weighed on prompt shape. Interconnectors were supportive and nuclear output stayed broadly on plan, keeping margins comfortable. On the curve, Summer-26 and Winter-26 baseload slipped with weaker UKAs and fuels, and clean sparks compressed on most strips as power underperformed gas.
Brent stabilised in the low to mid-$60s/bbl after last week’s slide, with shallow time-spreads and steady refinery margins. Carbon eased on profit taking and auction supply, with EUAs lower and UKAs closing down, trimming support for UK power. Coal calendars held just below $100/t and Atlantic LNG freight stayed elevated without disrupting Europe’s pull. Other developments included a US court blocking the federal wind freeze, ICE consulting on a longer TTF trading day, expanding Greek-US LNG deal flow, UK moves to fast track grid connections and markets watching for evidence of a 2026 oil surplus in the week’s agency reports.
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