Snapshot - 05 December 2025
Prices eased on Thursday on milder, windier forecasts, then opened Friday with small, range-bound gains. The UK system started slightly short as LNG send-out dipped, widening the NBP discount to TTF and pulling higher IUK nominations. Wind is expected to stay above seasonal norms into mid December, Norwegian exports have normalised as Troll works concluded and French nuclear availability is set to rise. Indicative levels had NBP day-ahead near 68.1 p/th and UK day-ahead baseload around £77.4/MWh.
Prompt gas softened on weather and strong supply, with Q1-26 near 69 p/th and Summer-26 around 64.6 p/th. Net withdrawals continued and European draws stepped up to the highest in almost two weeks, but inventories remain comfortable. Norwegian exit nominations recovered to about 340 mcm/day post-Troll, while Langeled flows were steady and UKCS output modest. LNG line-ups remain US-heavy into North West Europe, with JKM softer and Henry Hub slightly higher, reinforcing a well-covered winter balance if the mild pattern holds.
UK day-ahead baseload held in the mid-£70s/MWh and peak in the low-£80s/MWh, both lower day on day on stronger wind and milder temperatures. Forward baseload eased across the shoulder months, with Q1-26 lower and Summers marking small losses. Interconnector flows stayed supportive as continental day-ahead softened, and system prices were orderly. Above-normal wind over the next two weeks should cap gas-for-power demand, while French nuclear availability, just over 53 GW, is forecast to rise next week, improving regional import optionality.
Brent firmed to the low-$60s/bbl on producer discipline despite mixed product indicators. API2 Cal-26 coal drifted to just under $100/t. Carbon was steady to slightly firmer, with EUAs in the low-€80s/t and UKAs in the high-£50s/t, keeping the spread wide and relevant for clean-spark economics. Other developments included Turkey extending Russian gas contracts through 2026, stabilising Norwegian exports near 340 mcm/day, wind staying above norm into mid December, rising French nuclear availability and continued strong US-led LNG arrivals into North West Europe.
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