Snapshot - 04 December 2025
Gas and power stayed range bound, with modest prompt softness as milder, windier forecasts into next week tempered heating demand. Carbon was firmer and helped cushion the back end, while LNG and improving Norwegian availability kept near-term fundamentals comfortable. UKAs outperformed EUAs, narrowing the trans-Channel spread and lending relative support to longer-dated power despite weaker gas.
NBP and TTF eased as traders marked down early cold risks and priced a milder start to next week. System flexibility remains adequate, with broadly stable Norwegian nominations and a healthy LNG slate into North West Europe, including several US cargoes due at UK and nearby terminals. Wind may dip briefly in the near term but temperatures are expected to turn mild into the weekend, which typically weighs on near gas even if it can support prompt power. Curve gas was little changed, with front-month slightly lower and Q1 holding a tight range. Withdrawals have started but inventories remain comfortable for early December, keeping a ceiling on spikes unless a material outage emerges.
UK day-ahead baseload was capped by higher renewable expectations from early next week and a steadier interconnector picture, despite choppy intraday wind. Prompt spreads remained volatile around peaking hours, but import depth and steady CCGT availability contained moves. On the curve, power followed gas lower at the front but fell less where carbon support was strongest. Rising UKAs tightened the EUA–UKA differential and underpinned Winter and Calendar strips, even as spark spreads tightened modestly where gas outperformed power.
Brent stabilised in the low to mid-$60s/bbl with OPEC+ signalling caution on adding barrels and product cracks easing. EUAs softened on profit taking and auction supply while UKAs gained, narrowing the spread toward the mid-teens. Coal benchmarks were little changed and LNG pricing retained a small premium to TTF once freight is included, consistent with continued US-to-Europe flows. Other developments included Ofgem approving a £28 billion grid investment plan, EU agreement in principle to end Russian gas imports by 2027, GB Energy signalling a 15 GW clean capacity ambition by 2030, an Ovo ownership proposal, Turkey exploring US upstream investment alongside LNG deals, tighter Norwegian hydro potentially constraining power exports and higher Black Sea war-risk insurance costs.
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