Snapshot - 03 December 2025
Gas and power eased despite negative geopolitical headlines as milder forecasts into mid December, healthy Norwegian supply and firm LNG send-out kept risk premia contained. Day-ahead benchmarks reflected the softer tone, with UK NBP around 72.7 p/th and UK baseload near £85.5/MWh. Curve moves were mixed. A brief Troll constraint clipped Norwegian nominations but tightened the system only marginally, with storage withdrawals under way yet inventories still comfortable for the time of year.
Prompt gas edged down as balances improved. UK LNG send-out rose to about 82 mcm/day, with South Hook and Dragon steady and Isle of Grain flat. Norwegian inflows remained resilient, with Langeled near 73 mcm/day and Vesterled slightly higher. A one-day Troll outage cut capacity by roughly 8 mcm/day, taking total Norwegian exit nominations to around 318 mcm/day, but the impact was short-lived. UK demand opened near 256 mcm/day and linepack stayed comfortable. Warmer mid-December signals and steady US LNG availability continue to anchor the front of the curve, so upside from brief offshore issues is likely to fade.
UK day-ahead baseload firmed while the curve was broadly flat to softer. Renewables have been running above seasonal norms and forecasts keep wind and solar supportive into next week, while GB temperatures trend towards double digits, dampening peak demand. Day-ahead peak cleared near £96/MWh, with forward peaks softer in line with gas. CCGT continues to fill variability around renewables, while interconnectors and nuclear remain steady. Intraday volatility should persist, but the curve remains driven by gas and carbon rather than plant availability.
Brent eased to around $62.5/bbl on a weak start to the week, with a shallow curve signalling comfortable balances. API2 Cal-26 coal was near $101/t. Carbon softened, with EUAs around €81.8/t and UKAs near £56/t, leaving the EUA–UKA spread wide and crossover support limited when gas is soft. FX was steady, with GBP around 1.14 versus EUR and 1.32 versus USD. Other developments included renewed EU intent to phase out Russian gas by 2027, quick normalisation after the Troll blip, a busy early-December LNG slate, supportive renewables forecasts and modest UK nuclear maintenance.
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