Snapshot - 15 October 2026
Wholesale energy markets eased at the front end on Wednesday while continuing to build value further out. UK day-ahead power settled in the high £140s/MWh, a few pounds lower on the day, and day-ahead gas held in the low 200s p/therm as mild weather trimmed heating demand. The move lower was a pause in a strong rally rather than a turn: the forward curve pushed higher again, with summer and winter 2027 gas both adding around 2.5 p/therm and forward power from next spring onwards gaining ground.
The pressure is coming from supply and geopolitics rather than from UK weather. Two cargo ships were sunk in the Strait of Hormuz, lifting Brent to around $106/bbl and widening the risk premium attached to seaborne LNG. Unplanned problems at two Norwegian processing facilities have removed roughly 18 mcm/day of capacity, UK LNG arrivals are running nine cargoes behind last October, and European storage sits around 74 per cent full, well short of the seasonal norm. Carbon eased modestly in both the EU and UK schemes.
Power markets are showing the strain inside the day rather than in the daily average. Wednesday’s half-hourly prices ranged from the mid £20s/MWh in the solar-rich late morning to just under £300/MWh on the late afternoon ramp, with heavy imbalance volumes at both extremes. Several nuclear units remain off line, Nordic nuclear availability is around half, and continental hydro stocks are falling. Mild temperatures are buying the system time, with colder conditions signalled for the end of the month.
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