Snapshot - 14 October 2026
UK and European gas extended their rally into Tuesday’s close, with day-ahead NBP settling just above 200 p/therm and front-month contracts pushing into the mid-210s, up around 15 per cent on the week. The driver is supply rather than weather: lost Gulf LNG volumes, continued attacks on shipping around the Strait of Hormuz, and an extended outage at Norway’s Kårstø facility that has cut UK-bound pipeline flows. Underpinning all of it, European storage sits roughly 18 percentage points below its seasonal norm, which leaves the market with little margin for error. Prices have come off modestly in early Wednesday trade, though broker sentiment remains bullish.
Power moved further than gas on the prompt, with UK day-ahead baseload settling in the low 150s £/MWh after a gain of more than 20 per cent on the day. Wind and solar output both fell sharply, forcing a near-trebling of gas-fired generation, and the system was short through Wednesday’s morning peak with within-day prices running well above £250/MWh at the tightest point. Around 1.3 GW of UK nuclear capacity is fully offline. Continental power is also firm, with the French front-month contract setting its highest level since assessments began in August on declining hydro stocks, which is pulling UK output out across interconnection. Forward power has followed gas higher but with less force, leaving Calendar 2027 in the mid-130s £/MWh.
Elsewhere, crude slipped back slightly on Tuesday before firming above $106/bbl on Wednesday morning, with Gulf risk premium offset by confirmation that large volumes are still transiting Hormuz. Coal firmed across the forward strip. Carbon paused after a strong run, with EUAs just below €90/tonne and UK allowances in the mid-60s £/tonne, the latter up close to 10 per cent on the week ahead of the EU-UK summit on 20 November, where allowance-market linkage is expected to be discussed. Sterling was broadly unchanged.
This Snapshot offers a concise view of market trends. For comprehensive daily reports, strategic analysis and tailored advisory support, Lumley Consulting provides independent insight across gas, power and wider energy markets. Learn more about our premium subscriptions and consultancy services here.