Snapshot - 16 October 2026
Energy markets extended their autumn rally this week, though the pressure has shifted from the immediate months into next year. UK gas for prompt delivery settled a touch higher at just above 210 p/therm, while contracts covering the back half of 2027 and the winter beyond kept pushing to fresh multi-year highs. Below-average storage, an unsettled geopolitical backdrop and an uncertain winter supply outlook continue to keep a firm floor under the market, and the forward curve now prices a materially tighter 2027 than it did at the start of September.
Power saw the sharpest single move. Day-ahead baseload jumped by more than £25/MWh to the mid-£170s as wind output fell well below seasonal norms and an unusually large block of nuclear capacity sat offline. The evening peak was the pinch point, with balancing prices holding in the £240/MWh region for several hours and a late spike beyond £265/MWh. Prices have corrected sharply lower this morning, with day-ahead offered back near £148/MWh, but forward power remains firm and clean generation margins for gas plant are thin at the front of the curve.
Elsewhere, crude held broadly steady in the mid-$100s and looks set for a weekly gain on continued Middle East supply concerns, with the International Energy Agency moving to release more than 20 million barrels of diesel to relieve product tightness. Coal for next year firmed modestly. Carbon was the week’s weak spot, with both UK and EU allowances lower on the day and the UK allowance holding a discount of around £9 per tonne to its European equivalent. Sterling was mixed, slightly stronger against the dollar and softer against the euro.
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