Snapshot - 13 February 2026
European energy markets came under broad pressure on Thursday as a sharp sell-off in carbon allowances rippled across the complex. EUAs fell nearly 8 per cent to around €72.54 per tonne and UKAs dropped over £3 to £46.15 per tonne following political signals around EU ETS reform, dragging power curves lower despite natural gas holding relatively steady. Brent crude also slipped below $68 per barrel after the IEA projected a significant supply surplus for 2026.
UK natural gas prices softened at the front of the curve, with the NBP front month trading around 76–77 p/th, supported by Norwegian maintenance outages but capped by strong LNG deliveries and above-average wind forecasts. European storage at 35 per cent remains a concern for the back end of winter, and below-average temperatures are expected to persist through March, keeping withdrawal rates elevated. UK power front month baseload eased to around 75 £/MWh as carbon losses compressed generation margins.
The broader picture is one of competing forces: tight storage balances and Norwegian supply disruptions provide a floor, while ample LNG, bearish carbon, and a well-supplied oil market weigh on the upside. Political developments – from EU carbon reform discussions to allied efforts against Russia's shadow fleet – add layers of uncertainty that could shift sentiment quickly in either direction.
This Snapshot offers a concise view of market trends. For comprehensive daily reports, strategic analysis and tailored advisory support, Lumley Consulting provides independent insight across gas, power and wider energy markets. Learn more about our premium subscriptions and consultancy services here.