Snapshot - 16 February 2026
European energy markets opened sharply lower on Monday as weather models shifted milder for the second half of February. Gas prices fell heavily, with TTF front-month down as much as 6.9 per cent to a five-week low and NBP prompt contracts losing several pence. Strong LNG arrivals – with up to nine cargoes expected at UK terminals this month and Asian demand softened by Lunar New Year – have added to the bearish tone. EU storage is below 34 per cent, the lowest since 2022, but the milder outlook should moderate the draw rate.
The carbon market dominated headlines for a second week. EUA Dec-26 prices sank to €70.68 per tonne – their lowest since May and down more than €10 per tonne on the week – after the German Chancellor publicly questioned whether the EU ETS was fit for purpose. UK carbon allowances also fell sharply. The collapse in carbon dragged power contracts lower, with UK baseload curves shedding between £1 and £1.50/MWh across seasonal tenors and Continental markets seeing even steeper percentage declines.
Oil remained range-bound around $67.75 per barrel for Brent as traders awaited US–Iran talks in Geneva, while OPEC+ signalled a production increase from April. On the supply side, an unplanned compressor failure at Norway's Ormen Lange is curtailing around 5.3 mcm/day, and EDF warned that increasing renewable penetration was raising maintenance costs across its nuclear fleet. Wind generation is forecast to rise this week, further easing the short-term demand picture across north-west Europe.
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