Snapshot - 12 February 2026
European energy markets were dominated by a sharp sell-off in carbon on Thursday after German Chancellor Friedrich Merz signalled openness to revising or delaying the EU's emissions trading system. EUA benchmarks plunged to around €72 per tonne – the steepest decline since May 2022 – dragging UK and European power prices lower. UKAs also fell heavily, extending a 15 per cent retreat from mid-January highs.
Gas markets were more composed. NBP and TTF prompt prices held near this week's lows, supported by below-normal temperatures into the weekend but capped by a milder outlook from late February and healthy LNG arrivals into northwest Europe. Norwegian flows eased on planned maintenance at Kårstø and Nyhamna, while European storage at around 36 per cent remains well below year-ago levels. Brent crude firmed modestly to around $69.40 per barrel on Middle East rhetoric.
The broader backdrop is one of political uncertainty weighing on carbon and, by extension, on power, while gas fundamentals remain a tug-of-war between near-term cold and a softening demand profile further out. The EU leaders' meeting in Belgium on Thursday and the Commission's upcoming ETS reform proposal will be closely watched for further signals on the direction of carbon policy.
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